Team Defense Passing Yards

Passing Defense

In the year 2012 the average NFL team gave up 231 yards a game or 3701 yards a year through the air. The average from 2009-2013 was 227 yards a game, or 3637 yards a year. I examined the stats from 2009 to 2013 and attempted to figure out how much teams passing defense deviates from year to year. Below are the passing defense numbers from 2012.

In 2013 the average team allowed 237 yards a game through the air, or 3770 throughout the year. A slight increase compared to 2012. Below are the passing defense stats for teams from 2013.

My main interest in examining these numbers was to find out what the average change in a teams pass defense was from year to year. The chart below illustrates the amount of change that teams went through from 2012 to 2013. The number does not indicate whether the change is positive in yardage or negative, but displays the total amount of change in yards. I will examine the teams that changed positively or negatively in more detail after displaying the chart.

The average change in passing yardage given up from the year 2012 to 2013 was 30 yards a game, or 480 yards in a season. The inter-quartile mean average (eliminating the top 8 and bottom 8 teams) was 26.6 yards per game or 424.8 yards in a season. The average change over the five years I examined (year to year change, ie; 2009-2010, 2011-2012 etc;) was 26.2 yards a game or 419.2 yards over a season.

The chart above displays teams overall passing defence rank. In 2012, 17 teams we're above the average passing yardage allowed in the league. In 2013, 16 teams were above the average passing yards allowed for the league. The following teams we're able to stay above average from 2012 to 2013: Seattle Seahawks, Houston Texans, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Carolina Panthers, San Francisco 49ers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Arizona Cardinals, and the Chicago Bears. That is a total of ten teams. The following teams did not return to being above average: St. Louis Rams, New York Jets, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles. That totals to seven teams.

The following teams finished with below average defenses from 2012 to 2013: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New England Patriots, Washington Redskins, Atlanta Falcons, Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles. That totals to ten teams. The following teams finished below average in 2012 but improved to being above average in 2013: New Orleans Saints, Cleveland Browns, New York Giants, Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins. That is a total of six teams.

It is clearly possible for teams to improve their passing defense from one year to another. It appears that it is more likely for a team who is good one year to be good the next. More teams return to being above average then slip to being below average. The same can be true of the below average teams. More teams remain below average as opposed to improving and becoming above average.

Team Defense Total Points

In the year 2012 the average NFL team gave up 364 points or 22.75 points a game. If you take all 32 NFL teams and take the median you have the San Diego Chargers giving up 350 points or 21.87 points a game. For my example we will use the average instead of the median. Using the mean instead of the median causes the inclusion of 2 more teams being above the “line” of not finishing below average in points allowed.

The above chart displays that the following teams had below average defense in terms of points allowed: Cleveland Brown, New York Jets, Indianapolis Colts, Washington Redskins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars, Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints, Tennessee Titans.

I was interested to see how much these teams points allowed stat would change from 2012 to 2013. Below is a chart displaying that information.

The average for 2013 changed to 23.4 (more scoring throughout the NFL) and the median to the Tennessee Titans giving up 23.81. I once again use the mean instead of the median to calculate below average teams. The below average teams are as follows: Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Denver Broncos, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Dallas Cowboys, Atlanta Falcons, Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, Chicago Bears, Washington Redskins, Minnesota Vikings.

Of the 15 teams who finished below average defensively, 13 returned as below average teams the following year. The exceptions to this trend were the Saints and the Chiefs. The Saints and the Chiefs both improve their total points by over 100 points. The Saints improved by 150 points or 9.37 points a game, while the Chiefs improved by 120 or 7.39 points a game.

The average change in a defense from 2009-2013 was 3.83 points a game, or 61.28 points over a season. The average from 2012 to 2013 was 3.67 points a game or 58.72 points over a season. The Chiefs and Saints we're clearly anomalies in the way they improved their defense to a such a large degree.

The Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings, Atlanta Falcons, and Chicago Bears all had drastic changes in their point totals. 

These teams illustrate that it is possible for defenses who finish in the upper tier of the league to have a drop off in point total that exceed the norm. Out of the 32 NFL teams 11 of them had a change in terms of moving either up or down below the league average for points given up. I have listed the teams that had the most drastic changes.

Playoff Pool Picks

This week I picked the Colts to beat the Chiefs, the Saints to beat the Eagles, the 49ers to beat the Packers, and the Bengals to beat the Chargers.