Team Defense Total Points

In the year 2012 the average NFL team gave up 364 points or 22.75 points a game. If you take all 32 NFL teams and take the median you have the San Diego Chargers giving up 350 points or 21.87 points a game. For my example we will use the average instead of the median. Using the mean instead of the median causes the inclusion of 2 more teams being above the “line” of not finishing below average in points allowed.

The above chart displays that the following teams had below average defense in terms of points allowed: Cleveland Brown, New York Jets, Indianapolis Colts, Washington Redskins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars, Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints, Tennessee Titans.

I was interested to see how much these teams points allowed stat would change from 2012 to 2013. Below is a chart displaying that information.

The average for 2013 changed to 23.4 (more scoring throughout the NFL) and the median to the Tennessee Titans giving up 23.81. I once again use the mean instead of the median to calculate below average teams. The below average teams are as follows: Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Denver Broncos, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Dallas Cowboys, Atlanta Falcons, Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, Chicago Bears, Washington Redskins, Minnesota Vikings.

Of the 15 teams who finished below average defensively, 13 returned as below average teams the following year. The exceptions to this trend were the Saints and the Chiefs. The Saints and the Chiefs both improve their total points by over 100 points. The Saints improved by 150 points or 9.37 points a game, while the Chiefs improved by 120 or 7.39 points a game.

The average change in a defense from 2009-2013 was 3.83 points a game, or 61.28 points over a season. The average from 2012 to 2013 was 3.67 points a game or 58.72 points over a season. The Chiefs and Saints we're clearly anomalies in the way they improved their defense to a such a large degree.

The Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings, Atlanta Falcons, and Chicago Bears all had drastic changes in their point totals. 

These teams illustrate that it is possible for defenses who finish in the upper tier of the league to have a drop off in point total that exceed the norm. Out of the 32 NFL teams 11 of them had a change in terms of moving either up or down below the league average for points given up. I have listed the teams that had the most drastic changes.