NFL Draft Thoughts

Luck and Griffin III went as the first and second pick. I am extremely happy that the Arizona Cardinals took Michael Floyd. After hearing that Fitzgerald wanted him on the team I was disappointed when I saw an offensive tackle as their first pick in most mock drafts. The Cardinals definitely could have used a tackle, however I feel a strong wide receiver like Floyd brings many things to the table offensively. Anything that allows Fitzgerald to have more space is a good thing. Any little bit of coverage not used on Larry is a benefit. Every year Boldin was with the Arizona Cardinals, and played more then 12 games, both receivers broke the 1000 yard mark. Any wide receiver benefits from having other talented wide receivers around him. Aside from the Cards taking a great receiver; the other thing that interested me greatly was the amount of trades during the draft. Not just the quantity which saw over 5 trades, but some of the actual content of the trades.

The first trade saw the Vikings trade the 3rd pick of the drafts for the Browns' first (4th pick), fourth(118), fifth(139), and seventh round picks(211) . The Browns took running back Trent Richardson, the Vikings took offensive tackle Matt Kalil. I hope Richardson works out for the Browns. It shocks me that their general manager would give up so many draft picks. A fourth, fifth, and seventh round pick to move up one pick. What were they thinking? The Viking must have been laughing. How fortunate for Minnesota. They received four picks so the Browns could move up one spot in the draft. For Cleveland's sake I hope that Richardson delivers. They need to exceed 4-12 this year to satisfy the masses.
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NFL Draft

The draft is in three days. It is pretty much guaranteed that Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III are going to go as the first and second pick. Many fans are excited about who could potentially be on their team in the upcoming year. The interesting thing many people don't think about is what can happen after the first round. Numerous talented players were either drafted late or came onto teams undrafted. Arian Foster is arguably the best running back in the NFL, he was undrafted.  Tony Romo, Kurt Warner, and John Randle also all went undrafted. Tom Brady is arguably the best quarterback in the last 10 years, he was the 199th pick of the draft, taken in the six round. The first round will be interesting. The draft will have studs, duds, and undrafted stars who don't get drafted. No one truly knows what will happen. Who will be the next Pro Bowler from the first round? Who will be the next undrafted Pro Bowler? I can't wait to see. 2012-2013 will be an extremely interesting year.

Who is the best running back in the NFL?

Who is the best running back in the NFL?

I looked at statistics from 2011 to try and determine who was/is the best running back in the NFL. I first took the 32 running backs I defined as starting running backs. These running backs are the backs who had the majority of their teams rushing action. Some were leaders in split running back systems while others received the majority of carries due to injuries (Bush in Oakland).  Other running backs were extremely valuable in teams passing attacks (Sproles in New Orleans). I believe the best way to evaluate running backs is to look at total yardage. By examining rushing yardage and receiving yardage you can truly see how far a running back progressed his team up the field. I find that this is a truly valuable number. You want a running back to be able to give your team an optimal chance of gaining yardage on offense.

 Initial 32

I took all the running backs who I defined as starting running backs for the 2011 year. The average amount of carries for these running backs was 246. For the next process of my evaluation I cut out running backs who did not have 246 total touches.  Any running back who did not have 246 carries did not match the average number of carries among his 32 starting running back peers. The chart is displayed below. Anyone who did not meet 246 total touches did not provide a large enough sample of data to move on to the next step of my evaluation. The players who were cut were  Adrian Peterson, Fred Jackson, Ahmad Bradshaw, Roy Helu, LeGarette Blount, DeMarco Murray, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Peyton Hillis,  Darren Sproles, DeAngelo Williams, James Starks, Jackie Battle, Donald Brown, and Jahvid Best.

Remaining 18

After narrowing the field down to 18 running backs I saw the new average amount of touches was 298.  Some great running backs did not make my final cut. Ryan Matthews had a very impressive year and so did Matt Forte. However my analysis is based on who was the true workhorse back for their team/ who with adjusted stats would have the best contribution for their team. Eliminating those under 298 touches helped me examine backs who had an exceptional rushing load. The backs with more touches have more data that can make the Total Yards Adjusted calculation more legitimate. If a running back only had 50 touches and great yardage, is his information as accurate as a back who had 102 touches? It is clear that the more touches through receptions and carries provides more accurate data to analyze. Matt Forte only played 12 games last year. He was just shy of reaching 1000 yards rushing and 500 yards receiving. Those are extremely impressive numbers. However he did not handle the ball enough to truly be considered a workhorse back, or a top five running back. He did not have as many carries as his peers. Therefore he was not the best running back of 2011.  The backs I cut out at this stage were Willis McGahee, Ryan Matthews, Reggie Bush, Cedric Benson, Shonn Greene, Beanie Wells, Matt Forte, Michael Bush, Rashard Mendenhall.  Several of these backs had great years, however they did not have enough touches to contribute to their teams offense as much as the other remaining running backs.

Final 9

After narrowing the backs down even further the next backs to be eliminated were Frank Gore,

Marshawn Lynch, Stephen Jackson, and Chris Johnson. All of the backs had over 1000 rushing yards for the season and contributed over 1300 total yards, with Jackson, Lynch and Johnson putting up over 1400 yards.  To be fair to all the backs, I attempted to see what they would produce with the average amount of rushes and receptions among the remaining players.  At this point I cut players who did not total up to 1600 adjusted total yards. Even with adjusting the yards with attempts the Gore, Lynch, Jackson, and Johnson did not have quite the impressive seasons as some other running backs did. At this point in time it was fair to cut by adjusted yardage due to these players all have over 250 rushing attempts, and over 290 total touches.

Final 5

 The final running backs to make it past the cuts were Maurice Jones Drew, Ray Rice, Michael Turner, LeSean McCoy and Arian Foster. The average amount of touches amongst these backs equaled to 297 rushing attempts and 47 receptions. This all totals out to 344 total attempts. I then took these numbers and multiplied in the average for receiving and rushing with the attempt numbers. All of these backs had over 250 runs and Turner is the only back who had under 40 receptions.  The below displays the actual total yards and my yards adjusted stat which takes averages and puts them against the average number of runs and receptions to attempt to measure everyone's production on the same level.
 The average salary of these five players is 8116875 if you take out McCoy's ludicrous contract of under 1 million dollars.  The averages among these five indicate that to be a top five running back you should be producing around 297 attempts, over 1350 rushing yards, 47 receptions, over 400 receiving yards, and producing around 1800 total yards. The numbers above are based off the production of the five backs averaged out. Each back had enough of a sample size to take their rushing and receiving averages and put it towards the projected yards stat.
 

 Total Yards is the left column, while the right column is Adjusted Total Yards.

Yards adjusted is rushing average times 297 and receiving average times 47. The following displays the rankings of the Top Five NFL Running Backs based on my Adjusted Total Yards Stat.

5-LeSean McCoy

McCoy produced 1624 total yards. His adjusted yardage was 1733.  His low receiving average impacted his number when it came to the adjusted stat. He fell victim to having an incredibly low receiving average compared to the others backs which negatively impacted his numbers.   He had a great year. He collected many touchdowns. However this was about determining who can aide their team in gaining as much yardage as possible. Although he totals out to 5th on this list, 1624 total yards is a great year, and so is the adjusted stat of 1733. Lesean McCoy is definitely a top five running back in the NFL.

4- Michael Turner

Turner produced 1508 total yards. His adjusted yardage was 1786. He did not produce nearly as many receiving yards as the other backs. 17 receptions for 168 yards. His inflated receiving most likely lead to him being 4th in terms of total yards adjusted and ahead of McCoy. Turner is a dependable back and would be an asset to any teams rushing attack. The guy has legs like tree trunks, pure power.

3- Maurice Jones-Drew

MJD produced 1980 yards, but his adjusted yardage was 1800. He had 46 more rushes then the 297 used for the stat, which is why his production dropped when it came to the adjusted yards stat. MJD is clearly an incredible running back. He can handle a large workload, and was one of the shining points on a fairly poor Jacksonville Jaguars team. He had a 4.7 yard rushing average which is quite impressive. Any team in the NFL would be fortunate to have MJD on their team.

2-Ray Rice

Ray Rice produced the most yards in the NFL with 2068.  When you adjust his total touches from 367 to 344 his production drops to 1827.  Rice was 2nd in Adjusted Total Yards. He had an incredible year last year. He can clearly handle alot of touches, and still puts up good numbers even when handling the ball many times. I personally found the Baltimore Ravens let some games slip away from them because they under utilized Ray Rice. They need to utilize Rice as frequently as possible. He is clearly the largest offensive weapon on the team, and by my calculations a top five, if not top two running back in the league.

1-Arian Foster

His adjusted yards totaled out to 1855. His total yards during the actual season were 1841. Foster can carry a large work load as a running back. He averaged almost 12 yards a reception and had a solid 4.4 yard average on rushing attempts. He also put up his stellar season number of 1841 total yards while missing three games! His adjusted yardage is very close to his actual yardage.Arian Foster is the definition of a workhorse running back. Any team would be fortunate to have Arian Foster. He is a threat both receiving and rushing, he can get your team up the field. He also put up over 100 yards rushing in both of the Texans playoff games last year.

Conclusion

My Adjusted Total Yards Stat has Arian Foster being the best running back in the NFL.  These running backs essentially define what you are looking for in a top five  NFL running back. They can aide your team in not only rushing carries, but with receptions. All of these backs maintained decent rushing and receiving averages. They all broke 1500 total yards, and with the adjusted stat they all broke 1700 yards.  Any of these five running backs would be an asset to have on your team. Any running back making over seven million dollars should also be able to put numbers in the range of what these five did for their real total yards and adjusted total yards.The final four backs to be cut were before the top five were Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, Marshawn Lynch, and Steven Jackson. These backs are incredible running backs as well. They provide you with a top ten rushing performance. However what really differentiated them from the top five backs I came to with my Yards Adjusted calculation was workload. The fact that the top five had over 250 rushing attempts and 290 total touches show they not only can deal with a large workload, but their averages are based on large amounts of data.