10th Pick. 10 Man League. Quarterbacks? Running Backs? Draft Strategy.

I have conducted several mock drafts from the 10^th spot in a 10 team league. I draft with the notion that the league will have the following format.

• 1 QB
• 2 RB
• 2WR
• 1 WR/RB (Flex)
• 1 TE
• 1 K
• 1 DEF

In a flex league I believe it is key to have three solid running backs. I have written about my draft strategy in other posts on this site. I recommend reading http://mondaymorningowner.blogspot.ca/2012/06/fantasy-football-strategy-2012-general.html to understand many of my notions and reasoning for drafting how I do. In a flex league it is useful to go with three running backs. Three starting running backs can generally put up solid numbers week by week. The hope is that they will have steady performance and not put up extremely low fantasy points numbers week by week.

The tenth spot is an interesting spot to draft from. You get the advantage of drafting two players in a row. This is useful, it is nice to double up at the end of the first round. The draw back is you have to wait a long time for your next pick. I experimented with drafting an elite quarterback with my first set of picks, or choosing to draft two runningbacks. In leagues with a flex, I believe these are the players that you need to pick early. There is plenty of receiving depth that can be found in later rounds of the draft. The best example can be found between the following players in a situation from one of my mock drafts. (All predicted fantasy points courtesy of ESPN)

1st Round Pick

Matt Forte
10^th pick of the draft I take Matt Forte (199) (The top six point producers are gone, he is tied for seventh with Trent Richardson. I also personally think he will have a great year.)

2nd Round Pick

Drew Brees

11^th pick of the draft I take Drew Brees (345) (Rodgers and Brady are gone, Brees ranks third in predicted points)

3rd Round Pick

Fred Jackson

30^th pick I draft Fred Jackson (185) I believe he will get plenty of carries in Buffalo and should have a solid year. They did fairly well when he was healthy last year.

4th Round Pick

Darren Sproles

31^st pick I draft Darren Sproles (164) He is a weapon, and has the potential to put up some decent fantasy points again.

These are the players I could draft at quarterback if I waited until round three to draft a quarterback.

Mike Vick 271

Peyton Manning 279

Both Vick and Manning are great quarterbacks, they can also be a good addition in fantasy football. However, I am happy with taking Brees in the first as my alternative. Brees put up 345 points, that is 66 more points then Manning, and 74 points more then Vick. Drew Brees brings you points that make the difference between winning and losing fantasy games.

The two best remaining halfbacks in round three are Michael Turner (182) and Ahmad Bradshaw (167). I am happy with having Fred Jackson and Sproles instead of those two, both combinations of players yield 349 points. Turner and Bradshaw combined equal to 349 points, as do Sproles and Jackson. Therefore it is clear that Brees is the difference maker in this equation, and having a strong quarterback could lead to those extra 70 points that mean the world in fantasy football. The only thing I would have done differently in this scenario is take Maurice Jones-Drew. I maybe would have several weeks ago, however with his holdout still on going I had a better feeling about Forte putting up consistent numbers. I could be wrong however, and I would not necessarily stay away from MJD, but bear mind what happened with Chris Johnson last year.

Here are four teams I drafted with point totals excluding kickers, backups, and defense.

Quarterback in First Set of Picks
Draft 1

Matt Forte 199

Drew Brees 345

Fred Jackson 185

Darren Sproles 164

Demaryius Thomas 138

Aaron Hernandez 121

Kenny Britt 134

Torrey Smith 123

Total of 1409 Fantasy Points

Draft 2

Matt Forte 199

Matthew Stafford 338

Reggie Bush 150

Wes Welker 176

Donald Brown 134

Percy Harvin 150

Tamme 107

Stevie Johnson 134

Total of 1378 Fantasy Points

No Quarterback in First Set of Picks

Draft 3

Chris Johnson 215

Matt Forte 199

Darren Sproles 164

Jordy Nelson 149

Percy Harvin 150

Peyton Manning 263

Jacob Tamme 107

Kenny Britt 134

Total of 1381 Fantasy Points

Draft 4

Maurice Jones-Drew 299

Matt Forte 199

Jordy Nelson 149

Mike Vick 271

Reggie Bush 150

Aaron Hernandez 121

Reggie Wayne 101

Titus Young 107

Total of 1327 Fantasy Points

I was able to draft good teams by taking a quarterback with my first set of picks, or taking one later on in the draft as I display in my other two teams displayed above. I never use my first two picks on receivers. It is important to use your first two picks on positions that can't be easily filled in later rounds. It is impossible to get a guy like Matt Forte in later rounds. Reggie Bush is a good third runningback, and he is only slated for 150 fantasy points. That is 49 points less than Forte. By comparison Wes Welker is slated for 176 fantasy points, while Percy Harvin is slated for 150. A 26 point difference, you can also get Harvin two rounds later. It is those point differences at various positions that should impact your draft decisions. I covered those in the article linked at the top of this page.

The important thing is to monitor what is going on in the draft you take part in. You should always be willing to adapt to what is happening on the draft board. It is important to establish a running game, which is why I ensure I take a runningback in the first, however if Calvin Johnson were available at the tenth spot I may have taken him and a runningback in the first round. Then again it is tough to say what I would do.  Would I take Calvin Johnson and an elite quarterback? Or Calvin Johnson and a star runningback? Every draft is different. Maximize the value of your picks wherever you can. I was able to land Reggie Bush in numerous mock drafts. If I have Reggie Bush as my third runningback, playing in my flex spot, I feel good about the draft. It is much easier to fill needs at wideout later in the draft then it is to fill needs at halfback.

Update:
Here is an actual team I drafted in a 10 person league with a live draft. The league also makes use of individual defensive players. http://mondaymorningowner.blogspot.ca/2012/08/10-man-live-draft-idp-max-ppg.html

Here is my 2014 Fantasy Football Guide! I have changed elements of my strategy. The information on the link below is more up to date. It will give you insight of the 2014 draft.
http://mondaymorningowner.blogspot.com/2014/08/2014-positions-value-draft-strategy.html