Fantasy Football Strategy 2012: General Strategy, The 8th Pick

Update: Read my 2013 guide!
http://mondaymorningowner.blogspot.com/2013/08/fantasy-football-2013.html

Many different websites offer various strategies and tips to aide in drafting a fantasy team.  People in my fantasy league keep boasting about how they are going to pick the best team in 2012, or how they are going to win a championship this year. Fantasy football success and failure is determined by more then the initial drafting of a team.  Success can be obtained through the waiver wire,  can be hindered by stars under performing,  and can emerge from new stars emerging from obscurity.  Although these other methods of team building can lead you to success, the only  aspect of Fantasy Football that can be truly planned; while also being essential to success throughout the year is the draft. You are never going to be able to get Calvin Johnson, Ray Rice, Aaron Rodgers, or any other Top 5 predicted players off waivers; unless they have some incredible injury. Several different things are needed for successful drafting. The first is finding out who to draft. What makes a great fantasy team? I know some leagues differ in point structures and format, the one I play in has the following format.

• 1 Quarterback
• 2 Runningbacks
• 2 Wide Receivers
• 1 Tight End
• 1 Wide Receivers or Runningback
• 1 Kicker
• 1 Team Defense
   

What I seek to find out is what is the most efficient and effective way to draft. What positions require Top 10 point producers? What positions require Top 5 point producers? Basically I seek to find out what positions produce points that differ greatly. I'm figuring out whether it is more beneficial to have Calvin Johnson or Aaron Rodgers. Those kind of scenarios. Everything changes during the draft but I seek to have some sort of basic strategy. Every position has players that produce points to an extent that they deserve to be drafted higher than others. The key to drafting is knowing when to take what position for maximum point production.

I analyzed the stats from last year. I went to http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/2011/year-to-date-fantasy-points.cfm and I examined the Fantasy Points accumulated last year. I sought to see which positions Top 5 players average the most amount of Fantasy Points.

The average of the the Top 5 players at QB was 386.66, RB was 264.58, WR was 218.48

and TE was 165.92 Every position had a small number of over achievers. Rob Gronkowski was by far the best Tight End. He would have been second to only Calvin Johnson in FP if he was a Wide Receiver with his stellar 240.9. Calvin Johnson was exceptionally better then his 2^nd and close 3^rd in receiving Jordy Nelson and Wes Welker. He had around 50 more points then them. Rice and McCoy seemed to have superior years for RB's although Jones-Drew and Arian Foster were within 50 points. Rodgers, Brees, Newton and Brady all had amazing years at QB.

The difference between the Top 5 players at a postions, versus the 6-10 ranked players at a position is very telling. When you break players down into tiers and examine the difference in point distribution, you gain  valuable information. All these numbers are based off last years fantasy points produced from fftoolbox.com. All the numbers are averages based on the groupings listed. For example Top 5 QB's equals the Top 5 QB's average out to one number.

• Top 5 QB's =386.66 QB's 5-10=288.24
• Point difference of 98.42
• Top 12=323.05 13-24=203.225
• Point Difference 119.82

• Top 5 RB's= 264.58 RB's 5-10=195.08
• Point difference of 69.5 
• Top 12=221.88 13-24=163.1
• Point Difference of 58.78

• Top 5 WR=218.48 5-10=178.44
• Point Difference=40.04
• Top 12=192.15 Next 12=145.57
• Point Difference= 46.57

• Top 5 TE=165.92 5-10=116.26
• Point Difference=49.66
• Top 12=134.65 13-24=81.76
• Point Difference=52.89

These numbers show us many interesting things. It is clearly beneficial and necessary to draft an elite quarterback. The point differences between QB's 1-5 and 6-10 displays this fact. The 98 point difference between the different groupings is clearly significant. It is also necessary to try and obtain a Top 5 HB. You must start two running backs in Fantasy Football, one of them should be stellar.  The point difference between the various groupings of wide receivers shows that although it is beneficial to obtain a good receiver, you can wait to draft receivers to fill out your roster. Basically, my draft emphasis is first to obtain a solid half back, then ideally a Top 5 Quarterback, after that I either snag an elite high point producing wide receiver or my second running back. It will all become  clear soon. This data will be used further below when I conduct a mock draft.

Examination of last years numbers. Lets look at this years predicted numbers, and a few mock drafts and see what happens. We will follow the principles of the Top 5's and 10's etc; and try to use what we saw from last years end of season stats and blend it with this years predictions.

Using the standard format used in a flex league, I have developed a draft strategy. I examined predicted points from ESPN, found at http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/tools/projections?display=alt for the 2012 season, I compared them with the points from 2011 and the conclusions I had made. There are certain players who have value that exceed the averages of even the average of the Top 5 at their position. These players can give you points that average or even good players most likely won't achieve.  It is important to have players like this on your team. However, drafting players who attribute contributions exceptional at their position may hurt you if you are missing out on getting solid production from another area. I have made a list of players who are truly exceptional on points last year, and predicted points this year. I will list them below. I compiled this before the mock draft.

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers
Predicted:381 Last Year:385

 Tom Brady 

Predicted:354 Last Year:352

 Drew Brees 

Predicted:345 Last Year:380
 Matt Stafford

 Predicted:338 Last Year:333

 Cam Newton
Predicted:325 Last Year:352

Halfbacks

Arian Foster
Predicted:296 Last Year: 238
 Ray Rice 

Predicted:278 Last Year:283
 LeSean McCoy 

Predicted:245 Last Year:270

Maurice Jones-Drew
Predicted:229 Last Year:249

Chris Johnson
 Predicted:215 Last Year: 157

Wide Receivers

Calvin Johnson
 Predicted:224 Last Year:254

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski
Predicted:191 Last Year:233 

Jimmy Graham
Predicted:186 Last Year:187 

These players should get you points that exceed what others can do. I would take any of these players before I took any other player in the draft. I put all five of those running backs first in my draft list. If all of those running backs are gone I take an elite quarterback, if those guys are gone I take Johnson, Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham. I believe people over value receivers. People will draft receivers extremely high. However you can wait a round or two and get a receiver of fairly equal value. 

The point differences between elite quarterbacks and average ones is greatest. So it is extremely important to get a great quarterback, but not ideal to cast aside having a great halfback. You need two good runningbacks in a flex league, one should be in the upper echelon of the league. In fact it is ideal if you have three good runningbacks!

To begin the mock draft process I used a random number generator and went with the first outcome.  The result was the number 8. Examining data from the mockdrafts on www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com. If I have the eight pick I refer to my list. These players have been taken.

Taken

Arian Foster 1st

Ray Rice 2nd

LeSean McCoy 3rd

Aaron Rodgers 4^th
Calvin Johnson 5^th

Calvin Johnson 6th

Chris Johnson 7th

Remaining

Maurice Jones-Drew

Tom Brady

Drew Brees

Matt Stafford

Cam Newton

Rob Gronkowski

Jimmy Graham

1st Pick: Maurice Jones-Drew

At that point I take Maurice Jones-Drew. He is a solid halfback, a top five running back. He will provide me with production that is hard to find in other spots. It may seem like a good idea to take a guy like Tom Brady at this point, however missing out on MJD's solid 200+ predicted fantasy points will seriously hurt me during the year. In fantasy football you need at least one solid running back. Your first pick should be a halfback.  I then have to wait eight picks for my next pick.

Taken

Tom Brady 9th

Drew Brees 16^th

Remaining

Matt Stafford

Cam Newton

Rob Gronkowski

Jimmy Graham

2nd Pick: Matt Stafford

At this point I take Matt Stafford. I was thinking of taking a running back like Matt Forte or Tight Ends Rob Gronkowski, or Jimmy Graham. However I then calculated the difference. If I take Stafford and a lesser halfback later on, a guy like Reggie Bush, I can make 734 points with the duo and MJD. If I take Matt Forte, and a lesser predicted QB like Mike Vick I will only have 707 points. Those points matter in the long run.It is also more important to me to have Matt Stafford then one of the remarkable TE's. Stafford plays with Calvin Johnson, barring an unfortunate injury he is going to put up stellar numbers this year.  Your 2nd pick being a quarterback is fine. I would rather have Stafford on my team then have Maurice Jones-Drew and Matt Forte with an inferior quarterback.

Third Pick: Roddy White

By the time I reach my third pick many of the elite point producing halfbacks are gone. Luckily I have snagged MJD who will most likely put up solid production. My third round pick is Roddy White. He is a solid number one receiver. I believe that although halfbacks are of importance in fantasy Roddy White's 173 points put him into a position where it is worth drafting him. I will never use a 1st or 2nd pick on a wide out unless it is Calvin Johnson. There is just to much importance from the points an upper echelon quarterback and halfback can produce. In fact I probably would not even use a 1st round pick on Johnson. I think he is going to have the best year of any wideout in the league. I believe he is a remarkable player, however I can't risk not drafting a halfback to take him. Roddy White is a good third pick. He is extremely valuable, he is in the top five for projected points.

Calvin Johnson-224 points

Larry Fitzgerald-184 

Wes Welker-176

Roddy White-173 points
Andre Johnson-172

Greg Jennings-166

AJ Green -169

Mike Wallace-169

Therefore it is okay to grab one of these guys with your third pick to be your number one receiver. The interesting thing is all the receivers except Mike Wallace we're taken before I got White in the average mockdraft. We already have a good RB in MJD, and a good QB in Stafford, White is going to be the cornerstone of our receiving core.The fact that we're getting him in the third round is what is so great. In the mockdraft 8 TE/WR were taken before I was able to get Roddy. People will use 1st and 2nd round picks to get those receivers and tight ends. My belief is get a great HB, great QB, then try to steal a guy like Roddy White when you can. Don't take a receiver if you are not strong else where.

Fourth Pick: Reggie Bush

My fourth round pick is Reggie Bush. He is a good halfback to have as my number two. Predicted low, but I believe he will have a big year. Bush rushed for over 1000 yards last year, and although I do not want him to be my number one back, he is a solid number two.I believe he will have some big games this year, which can ultimately help win you fantasy games.

Fifth Pick: Roy Helu

In the Mock Draft I examined Roy Helu was still around by the time my fifth pick occurred.

If so I draft Roy Helu. The Redskins do sort of run their halfbacks by committee, however Helu emerged as a number one guy last season. He has great value as my flex player.To be able to have 3 starting running backs on your team is incredibly helpful. I believe it is best to have a runningback as your flex player.

Sixth Pick: Aaron Hernandez

My sixth pick would then be Aaron Hernandez. He is my starting Tight End. He is going to put up solid numbers in the Patriots pass happy offense.

Seventh Pick:Denarius Moore

My seventh pick is Denarius Moore.He is my second wide receiver. I believe he has the potential to have a good year. He had some monstrous games last year, and Carson Palmer should hopefully get him the ball many times this year.

Eight Pick: San Francisco Defense

My eight pick will be the San Francisco defense. They did not produce the most fantasy points last year, however they we're consistent in keeping the score low last year, had arguably the best defense in the NFL, play the Rams twice a year, and are consistent.

Ninth Pick:Legarette Blount

My eight pick will be Legarette Blount. He is not projected to be the starter in Tampa, however he should be good for a bye week, and could emerge as the eventual starter. 

Tenth Pick: Stephen Gostkowski

My ninth pick is New England's kicker Gostkowski. The Patriots will be scoring this year, therefore Gostkowski will be as well.

I won't continue to list off who I will pick. At this point it is just rounding out my bench. What I have established is my basic fantasy strategy. It hinges on obtaining strength in the running game, an elite quarterback, obtaining a number one receiver past round two, and filling out my receiving corps in later rounds. I will continue to post more relating to my fantasy strategy and display it's benefits.