Sunday, September 14, 2014

Week 1 Results and Misc Thoughts

I went 3-0 in my leagues Week 1. I am looking to continue rolling Week 2. I will need strong play from my quarterbacks. In my IDP league my defensive players were spectacular.

Sunday, August 31, 2014

2014 Fantasy Football Cheatsheet 12 Team Draft Flex

Do you want to win your fantasy football league? Obviously. If you are reading this right now your leagues draft is very close to the beginning of the NFL season. This article will give you the logic behind my cheat sheet, and the actual cheat sheet format I used during my last draft, and plan to use for my next two. My upcoming draft is in a 12 man league which features a flex. The positional requirements are as follows:
  • 1 QB
  • 2 RB
  • 2 WR
  • 1 WR/RB Flex
  • 1 TE
  • 1 K
  • 1 DEF
  • 5 Bench
Some features of the leagues scoring system and positional options are:
  • Quarterback passing touchdowns are only worth four points instead of six. 
  • You can play either an RB or WR in the flex spot. 
I have assembled a cheat sheet that you can use for 12 team drafts featuring a flex. The quarterback scoring on this cheat sheet is based on passing touchdowns being worth four points. I have already drafted in my league which does not have a flex and features IDP for defense. My strategy in non IDP drafts is fairly similar. The only downside for me is that in non IDP drafts less opportunities exist to draft players at ridiculous value. People do not understand IDP as well as team defense, which allows for some ridiculously high value picks.  I am a huge believer in value based drafting (VBD).  I am not sure where I am drafting in this league. Two of my leagues give draft position away before the draft, this one does not. Regardless of my draft spot, I will always attempt to draft players who exceed their peers by the largest margin.

I believe it is ideal to target the best players available. You will most likely see some wild picks in your draft. Capitalize on these mistakes by other managers. Be flexible during your draft, play what the board gives you. Drafting with rigid rules may prevent you from getting players who have high value. Take the players who slide to you in the draft. My top twelve in terms of player value is as follows:


Name Team Position FPP/Week FPP Value
Jamaal Charles KC RB 16.2375 259.8 138.60
LeSean McCoy PHI RB 15.9 254.4 133.20
Matt Forte CHI RB 15.10625 241.7 120.50
Adrian Peterson MIN RB 14.81875 237.1 115.90
Calvin Johnson DET WR 14.35625 229.7 109.00
Demaryius Thomas DEN WR 13.7125 219.4 98.70
Eddie Lacy GB RB 13.63125 218.1 96.90
Jimmy Graham NO TE 12.2125 195.4 94.10
Montee Ball DEN RB 12.98125 207.7 86.50
DeMarco Murray DAL RB 12.9125 206.6 85.40
Peyton Manning DEN QB 22.7125 363.4 82.60
Marshawn Lynch SEA RB 12.6625 202.6 81.40

The first twelve picks in my last draft went as follows:
  1. LeSean McCoy
  2. Adrian Peterson
  3. Jamaal Charles
  4. Matt Forte
  5. Eddie Lacy
  6. Marshawn Lynch
  7. Peyton Manning 
  8. Drew Brees
  9. Montee Ball
  10. Aaron Rodgers
  11. Jimmy Graham
  12. Calvin Johnson
Did I want to establish a strong running back for my team? Yes. Every fantasy owner does. With the twelfth pick I drafted Calvin Johnson. I sat hoping he would slide to me. Is he a wide receiver? Yes. Is he the 5th best player based off value? Yes. I drafted a wide receiver in the first round, Megatron was a steal. I picked immediately after and I picked another wide receiver. Demaryius Thomas. The sixth best player based off value. After those back to back picks I had to wait a long time to draft again. With my next set of picks (36 and 37) I took Le'Veon Bell and Rob Gronkowski. Le'Veon Bell was my 18th ranked player based on value, Gronk my 33rd. I fleshed out my running game later in the draft. Was I concerned about my running game throughout the draft? Yes. I addressed that need by drafting plenty of running backs: Le'Veon Bell, Bishop Sankey, Trent Richardson, Fred Jackson, and long shot Khiry Robinson. I will play the waiver wire throughout they year to find a diamond in the rough. Not taking a RB in the first allowed me to draft the two best WR's in the draft. I didn't anticipate Calvin Johnson to fall to twelfth, and I certainly did not expect Thomas to fall as well. Playing the board payed off. I was flexible and went with what the board gave me.

My cheat sheet is posted below, and I have also provided a download link. The sheet only includes 112 players. Examine projections, get a list of sleepers, do some additional research. The sheet should give you a a fairly thorough list in which you can base your draft off. You obviously need to draft to fill your positional requirements, but don't feel obligated to fill a position if better players exist elsewhere. Just because one manager takes a mid round tight end does not mean you have to. Take the best player available and get a Tight End later in the draft. Always take the best player available. Good luck!


Name Team Position FPP/Week FPP Value
Jamaal Charles KC RB 16.2375 259.8 138.60
LeSean McCoy PHI RB 15.9 254.4 133.20
Matt Forte CHI RB 15.10625 241.7 120.50
Adrian Peterson MIN RB 14.81875 237.1 115.90
Calvin Johnson DET WR 14.35625 229.7 109.00
Demaryius Thomas DEN WR 13.7125 219.4 98.70
Eddie Lacy GB RB 13.63125 218.1 96.90
Jimmy Graham NO TE 12.2125 195.4 94.10
Montee Ball DEN RB 12.98125 207.7 86.50
DeMarco Murray DAL RB 12.9125 206.6 85.40
Peyton Manning DEN QB 22.7125 363.4 82.60
Marshawn Lynch SEA RB 12.6625 202.6 81.40
Julio Jones ATL WR 12.55625 200.9 80.20
Dez Bryant DAL WR 12.55625 200.9 80.20
Doug Martin TB RB 12.4875 199.8 78.60
Giovani Bernard CIN RB 12.475 199.6 78.40
A.J. Green CIN WR 12.15625 194.5 73.80
Le'Veon Bell PIT RB 12.0875 193.4 72.20
Zac Stacy STL RB 11.9625 191.4 70.20
Brandon Marshall CHI WR 11.85625 189.7 69.00
Alfred Morris WAS RB 11.80625 188.9 67.70
Arian Foster HOU RB 11.75625 188.1 66.90
Jordy Nelson GB WR 11.64375 186.3 65.60
Aaron Rodgers GB QB 21.6 345.6 64.80
Alshon Jeffery CHI WR 11.55 184.8 64.10
Antonio Brown PIT WR 11.54375 184.7 64.00
Andre Ellington ARI RB 11.29375 180.7 59.50
Toby Gerhart JAC RB 11.20625 179.3 58.10
Julius Thomas DEN TE 9.8875 158.2 56.90
Seattle   DEF 10.905 174.48 55.50
Drew Brees NO QB 21 336 55.20
Randall Cobb GB WR 10.8375 173.4 52.70
Rob Gronkowski NE TE 9.43125 150.9 49.60
Ryan Mathews SD RB 10.55 168.8 47.60
Reggie Bush DET RB 10.4625 167.4 46.20
Carolina   DEF 10.315 165.04 46.06
Vincent Jackson TB WR 10.40625 166.5 45.80
Joique Bell DET RB 10.4 166.4 45.20
Frank Gore SF RB 10.325 165.2 44.00
Andre Johnson HOU WR 10.15 162.4 41.70
Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR 10.14375 162.3 41.60
Ray Rice BAL RB 10.1375 162.2 41.00
Rashad Jennings NYG RB 10.08125 161.3 40.10
Shane Vereen NE RB 10.05625 160.9 39.70
C.J. Spiller BUF RB 10.025 160.4 39.20
Michael Crabtree SF WR 9.99375 159.9 39.20
Chris Johnson NYJ RB 9.925 158.8 37.60
Keenan Allen SD WR 9.71875 155.5 34.80
Ben Tate CLE RB 9.71875 155.5 34.30
Cordarrelle Patterson MIN WR 9.54375 152.7 32.00
Bishop Sankey TEN RB 9.56875 153.1 31.90
Roddy White ATL WR 9.50625 152.1 31.40
Michael Floyd ARI WR 9.44375 151.1 30.40
Trent Richardson IND RB 9.46875 151.5 30.30
Victor Cruz NYG WR 9.4375 151 30.30
Vernon Davis SF TE 8.20625 131.3 30.00
Pierre Garcon WAS WR 9.35625 149.7 29.00
Stevan Ridley NE RB 9.29375 148.7 27.50
St.Louis   DEF 9.1525 146.44 27.46
Emmanuel Sanders DEN WR 9.1625 146.6 25.90
KC   DEF 9.05 144.8 25.82
Matthew Stafford DET QB 19.1125 305.8 25.00
Percy Harvin SEA WR 8.98125 143.7 23.00
Torrey Smith BAL WR 8.98125 143.7 23.00
Jason Witten DAL TE 7.75625 124.1 22.80
Cincinnatti   DEF 8.83 141.28 22.30
Jordan Cameron CLE TE 7.6875 123 21.70
Andrew Luck IND QB 18.9 302.4 21.60
DeSean Jackson WAS WR 8.8125 141 20.30
Dennis Pitta BAL TE 7.5875 121.4 20.10
Nick Foles PHI QB 18.65 298.4 17.60
Marques Colston NO WR 8.61875 137.9 17.20
Julian Edelman NE WR 8.49375 135.9 15.20
Ty Hilton IND WR 8.4625 135.4 14.70
Maurice Jones-Drew OAK RB 8.4875 135.8 14.60
Golden Tate DET WR 8.45 135.2 14.50
Jordan Reed WAS TE 7.20625 115.3 14.00
Mike Wallace MIA WR 8.40625 134.5 13.80
Arizona   DEF 8.248125 131.97 12.99
Jeremy Maclin PHI WR 8.31875 133.1 12.40
Fred Jackson BUF RB 8.34375 133.5 12.30
Colin Kaepernick SF QB 18.3125 293 12.20
Kendall Wright TEN WR 8.2875 132.6 11.90
Greg Olsen CAR TE 7.05 112.8 11.50
Kyle Rudolph MIN TE 7.00625 112.1 10.80
New England   DEF 8.108125 129.73 10.75
TB   DEF 8.06125 128.98 10.00
Pierre Thomas NO RB 8.175 130.8 9.60
Steven Jackson ATL RB 8.14375 130.3 9.10
Terrance Williams DAL WR 8.1125 129.8 9.10
Matt Ryan ATL QB 18.11875 289.9 9.10
Cleveland   DEF 7.886875 126.19 7.21
Knowshon Moreno MIA RB 7.975 127.6 6.40
Eric Decker NYJ WR 7.86875 125.9 5.20
Tom Brady NE QB 17.8625 285.8 5.00
Zach Ertz PHI TE 6.60625 105.7 4.40
Denver    DEF 7.64625 122.34 3.36
Reggie Wayne IND WR 7.75 124 3.30
Chicago   DEF 7.528125 120.45 1.47
Danny Woodhead SD RB 7.64375 122.3 1.10
Sammy Watkins BUF WR 7.59375 121.5 0.80
Robert Griffin III WAS QB 17.59375 281.5 0.70
Tony Romo DAL QB 17.575 281.2 0.40
GB   DEF 7.43625 118.98 0.00
Cam Newton CAR QB 17.55 280.8 0.00
DeAngelo Williams CAR RB 7.575 121.2 0.00
Martellus Bennett CHI TE 6.33125 101.3 0.00
Terrance West CLE RB 7.51875 120.3 -0.90
Wes Welker DEN WR 7.35 117.6 -1.38
Kelvin Benjamin CAR WR 7.4 118.4 -2.30
Russell Wilson SEA QB 17.39375 278.3 -2.50
Jay Cutler CHI QB 17.025 272.4 -8.40