Friday, April 04, 2014

Update

I am currently analyzing statistics from last season. I am going to be comparing year to year data, the NFL schedule (when it is released), and several other factors in order to make predictions for the upcoming year. I plan to make a great draft cheat sheet based of the wonderful one I used for fantasy baseball.

To prepare for my fantasy baseball draft I scoured the internet for solid advice/data. I came across  http://www.mrcheatsheet.com and was incredibly impressed with the cheat sheets I found. I plan to make a cohesive and helpful cheat sheet just as Mr.Cheatsheet did for baseball. I can't wait for the the upcoming fantasy football season!

Sunday, March 23, 2014

2013 Season Summary/What I Learned

My 2013 season was full of ups and downs. I learned many valuable lessons from both my leagues. I learned to not buy in on over hyped players, to value consistency, and to draft players who produce above average fantasy points at their position. A key to fantasy drafting is getting players when they slide down in draft position, and not reaching to get average players. My ten man league (no flex, 3 WR, with individual defensive players) saw me repeat as champion. I only lost once all season. I finished 15-1 including the playoffs. 12-1 was my regular season record.

I knew my season was going to be successful immediately after the draft. My first pick was Doug Martin. Doug Martin did not even end up being that great of a pick. My stellar drafting allowed that fact to not matter.  Doug Martin only played six games, had 456 yards, and scored one touchdown. His season ending injury did not even hurt my team. It would have crippled some teams if their first pick sustained a monstrous injury, not mine. My running backs included: Doug Martin, Knowshon Moreno, Chris Johnson, and Giovanni Bernard (at the time of Martin's injury). My receiving corps consisted of Dez Bryant, AJ Green, and Jordy Nelson. All of the players I mentioned in the past two paragraphs were draft picks except Knowshon, who I snagged off the waiver wire. Drafting is the key to any fantasy season. Picking the "wrong" player in the first few rounds can be devastating. The second, third, and fourth rounds are incredibly important. To be honest every round is important, but the early rounds more so. It is also important to keep your eyes out for players who slide. I drafted Jordy Nelson with the ninth pick in the 10th round! 

My twelve team league has shown me that it is never a good idea to draft a player who you are unsure of in the early rounds. I drafted Lamar Miller based entirely off the fact that "experts" were saying he was going to be a number one running back. People were claiming that he was the go to guy in Miami. He did show some flashes of brilliance, but did not produce solid numbers most of the year. It could have had to do with the Dolphins disastrous offensive line situation. The Johnathan Martin and Richie Incognito saga. I was attempting to draft three remarkable running backs. I wanted a strong running back in my flex spot. While my ten man league is a 3 wide receiver league, this league utilizes a flex. I know hind sight is twenty/twenty, but if I had not bought into the hype I could have drafted  Eddie Lacy or Demarco Murray. Lacy was a player who I had extreme confidence in going into the season, but as I sad I bought into Miller hype. My own personal belief was that Lacy was a strong runner and was going to be on a power house offense. I should have picked him and trusted my beliefs instead of taking a running back for the Dolphins. A running back for the Dolphins who I really knew nothing about.  I could have even drafted Eric Decker, or Wes Welker. I ended up finishing 7-7 this year. 9-7 if you count my wins in the consolation playoff. My whole season came down to my errant Miller pick. I almost has a trade deadline trade where I would have sent Tony Gonzalez and Miller for Julius Thomas. The trade did not end up going through, but it would not have saved me and bumped me into the playoffs.

I can not emphasize enough that the majority of your fantasy football success hinges on the draft. Acquiring players who find themselves in starting roles off waivers is important, it could be one of the vital points to your season, But you can not win an entire year off waivers, you need a good draft.

About Me

I am a passionate football fan. I have loved the Phoenix/Arizona Cardinals since using them while playing Tecmo Super Bowl on the Nintendo Entertainment System. I remember launching passes with Tom Tupa, making catches with Ricky Proehl, running the ball with Vai Sikahema, and playing defense with Ken Harvey. I have watched Jake Plummer, Josh McCown, Matt Leinart, Kurt Warner, Derek Anderson, Max Hall, John Skelton, Kevin Kolb, and Carson Palmer all launch balls to quality receivers like Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and David Boston.  

I could list off Cardinals players for quite some time (on both sides of the ball). How does any of this relate to fantasy football? Fantasy football allows you to draft a team that you manage over the course of an NFL season. I am a fan of football to the point where I watch Thursday night games with two sub .500 teams. I don't just watch Cardinal games, I'll watch any NFL game. Not everyone loves the sport to that degree, but fantasy football could give any fan a reason to watch a game.

Fantasy football makes every NFL game more significant. The Texans had a disappointing 2013 season, but I'm sure Andre Johnson owners had to be at least some what pleases with his performance. Lots of people enjoyed watching Josh Gordon amass yardage through the season on the Cleveland Browns. Fantasy football can make you upset when a team chooses to run the ball in for a touchdown instead of passing it to the tight end who happens to be on your fantasy team. Fantasy football gives every game more meaning to the casual and/or hardcore fan.

Fantasy football can lead to happiness, glory, frustration and sadness. It covers the whole spectrum of emotions. It puts you in charge of all decision making regarding your team. It will lead you to pick players on rival teams, take chances on rookies, and lead to wishes for production from old stars.

This site is dedicated to knowledge. I give advice on fantasy football. This advice is not based off personal bias, my favourite teams, my favourite players, or any other elements of bias. The information on this site is based off analysis and math.  I examine statistics and attempt to provide readers with the most educated guesses I can give as to what happen. My draft guides attempt to give the reader the best information possible. I examine stats and mock drafts to prepare you for your fantasy draft.

I would love to write about football full time, but this site is currently just a labour of love. I put tons of time into my research and writing of draft guides, articles, game predictions, and all other aspects of the website. If you have any questions or comments please leave me a message in the comment box.

Good luck!
Travis

Friday, January 17, 2014

Team Defense Passing Yards

Passing Defense

In the year 2012 the average NFL team gave up 231 yards a game or 3701 yards a year through the air. The average from 2009-2013 was 227 yards a game, or 3637 yards a year. I examined the stats from 2009 to 2013 and attempted to figure out how much teams passing defense deviates from year to year. Below are the passing defense numbers from 2012.





In 2013 the average team allowed 237 yards a game through the air, or 3770 throughout the year. A slight increase compared to 2012. Below are the passing defense stats for teams from 2013.





My main interest in examining these numbers was to find out what the average change in a teams pass defense was from year to year. The chart below illustrates the amount of change that teams went through from 2012 to 2013. The number does not indicate whether the change is positive in yardage or negative, but displays the total amount of change in yards. I will examine the teams that changed positively or negatively in more detail after displaying the chart.




The average change in passing yardage given up from the year 2012 to 2013 was 30 yards a game, or 480 yards in a season. The inter-quartile mean average (eliminating the top 8 and bottom 8 teams) was 26.6 yards per game or 424.8 yards in a season. The average change over the five years I examined (year to year change, ie; 2009-2010, 2011-2012 etc;) was 26.2 yards a game or 419.2 yards over a season.




The chart above displays teams overall passing defence rank. In 2012, 17 teams we're above the average passing yardage allowed in the league. In 2013, 16 teams were above the average passing yards allowed for the league. The following teams we're able to stay above average from 2012 to 2013: Seattle Seahawks, Houston Texans, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Carolina Panthers, San Francisco 49ers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Arizona Cardinals, and the Chicago Bears. That is a total of ten teams. The following teams did not return to being above average: St. Louis Rams, New York Jets, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles. That totals to seven teams.

The following teams finished with below average defenses from 2012 to 2013: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New England Patriots, Washington Redskins, Atlanta Falcons, Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles. That totals to ten teams. The following teams finished below average in 2012 but improved to being above average in 2013: New Orleans Saints, Cleveland Browns, New York Giants, Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins. That is a total of six teams.

It is clearly possible for teams to improve their passing defense from one year to another. It appears that it is more likely for a team who is good one year to be good the next. More teams return to being above average then slip to being below average. The same can be true of the below average teams. More teams remain below average as opposed to improving and becoming above average.

Tuesday, January 14, 2014

Team Defense Total Points



In the year 2012 the average NFL team gave up 364 points or 22.75 points a game. If you take all 32 NFL teams and take the median you have the San Diego Chargers giving up 350 points or 21.87 points a game. For my example we will use the average instead of the median. Using the mean instead of the median causes the inclusion of 2 more teams being above the “line” of not finishing below average in points allowed.



The above chart displays that the following teams had below average defense in terms of points allowed: Cleveland Brown, New York Jets, Indianapolis Colts, Washington Redskins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars, Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints, Tennessee Titans.

I was interested to see how much these teams points allowed stat would change from 2012 to 2013. Below is a chart displaying that information.






The average for 2013 changed to 23.4 (more scoring throughout the NFL) and the median to the Tennessee Titans giving up 23.81. I once again use the mean instead of the median to calculate below average teams. The below average teams are as follows: Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Denver Broncos, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Dallas Cowboys, Atlanta Falcons, Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, Chicago Bears, Washington Redskins, Minnesota Vikings.

Of the 15 teams who finished below average defensively, 13 returned as below average teams the following year. The exceptions to this trend were the Saints and the Chiefs. The Saints and the Chiefs both improve their total points by over 100 points. The Saints improved by 150 points or 9.37 points a game, while the Chiefs improved by 120 or 7.39 points a game.

The average change in a defense from 2009-2013 was 3.83 points a game, or 61.28 points over a season. The average from 2012 to 2013 was 3.67 points a game or 58.72 points over a season. The Chiefs and Saints we're clearly anomalies in the way they improved their defense to a such a large degree.

The Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings, Atlanta Falcons, and Chicago Bears all had drastic changes in their point totals. 



These teams illustrate that it is possible for defenses who finish in the upper tier of the league to have a drop off in point total that exceed the norm. Out of the 32 NFL teams 11 of them had a change in terms of moving either up or down below the league average for points given up. I have listed the teams that had the most drastic changes.